The stock closed $221.86 for the June OpEx cycle.
The stock has had 3 positive weeks in a row...
With gains of +10.50%, +5.10%, and +3.25%; for a total 3-week gain of +19.82% - outperforming its benchmark (NASDAQ 100; $QQQ) with its gain of +8.40% (2.36x beta).
Compared w/ the $QQQ on a weekly basis; beta was the following: 2.56x, 5.67x and 0.99x.
The second week out-performance (5.67x) is a function of constant positive 'news releases' (pumping) by the CEO leaks & positive analyst notes; as well as direct pumping/hype around the Annual Shareholder Meeting. Last week under-performance is a function of limited effect of the short positions "squeeze", negative notes by Goldman Sachs & Co, as well as simple lack of momentum & dried up retail demand.
I believe that the possible decline from weekly highs during the last week (on a negative GS note) was substantially softened by the S&P 500 rally to the ATHs, as well as the effect of the Options Expiration (things usually stay very flat going into OpEx Fri).
I believe that the possible decline from weekly highs during the last week (on a negative GS note) was substantially softened by the S&P 500 rally to the ATHs, as well as the effect of the Options Expiration (things usually stay very flat going into OpEx Fri).
Thus; current outlook for the next OpEx cycle (06/24 - 07/19).
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I have the following expectations from $TSLAQ going into 07/19;
1) A fade into $205 - $210 zone during the 1st week (Tue-Wed); on weak beta, lack of demand & post-OpEx effect.
I expect substantial demand & 'support' around $208 - $210 (price bounce), going into the end of 1st week. Beta (QQQ) is likely to also get bid up on any decent declines. Thus, it could close the 1st week in the $215 - $216 range; which would amount to ~ -3.0% loss on the week.
2) I expect TSLA to beat expectations on the deliveries during the 2nd week; and regardless of the fact that this beat would be absolute nonsense & wouldn't bring anything good for the stock (intrinsically speaking); I would expect the stock to go +5.0% to +8.0% on the deliveries beat over 2-3 days (on algos/idiots buying).
They might also issue some 'analyst' statements & stock buy ratings, as they've been doing over the past 2 weeks to keep it flat-to-high. So, even if it doesn't get to close $215 - $216 during the 1st week; that might easily amount to another +3.0% or so.
This would the price back into $229 - $235 range; for a 'second test' of these levels. And I really hope it will get there.
(Just a 'wild guess', but I'd expect them to beat 80k, for a high 80s number)
3) After the initial bids fade after the quarterly deliveries pump & statements & upgrades (read: nonsense); we will see another fail @ $230-$235 zone and it's going to be a 'bumpy road' downhill. Slow bleed, which will get accelerated into possibly new lows (sub-$177/share) after the Quarterly report in August.
That's the BOTTOM LINE for now. I will revise this, if some of the essential variables will change.
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1) A fade into $205 - $210 zone during the 1st week (Tue-Wed); on weak beta, lack of demand & post-OpEx effect.
I expect substantial demand & 'support' around $208 - $210 (price bounce), going into the end of 1st week. Beta (QQQ) is likely to also get bid up on any decent declines. Thus, it could close the 1st week in the $215 - $216 range; which would amount to ~ -3.0% loss on the week.
2) I expect TSLA to beat expectations on the deliveries during the 2nd week; and regardless of the fact that this beat would be absolute nonsense & wouldn't bring anything good for the stock (intrinsically speaking); I would expect the stock to go +5.0% to +8.0% on the deliveries beat over 2-3 days (on algos/idiots buying).
They might also issue some 'analyst' statements & stock buy ratings, as they've been doing over the past 2 weeks to keep it flat-to-high. So, even if it doesn't get to close $215 - $216 during the 1st week; that might easily amount to another +3.0% or so.
This would the price back into $229 - $235 range; for a 'second test' of these levels. And I really hope it will get there.
(Just a 'wild guess', but I'd expect them to beat 80k, for a high 80s number)
3) After the initial bids fade after the quarterly deliveries pump & statements & upgrades (read: nonsense); we will see another fail @ $230-$235 zone and it's going to be a 'bumpy road' downhill. Slow bleed, which will get accelerated into possibly new lows (sub-$177/share) after the Quarterly report in August.
That's the BOTTOM LINE for now. I will revise this, if some of the essential variables will change.
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Beta is a factor & there is (obvious) uncertainty around many of the factors that influence my assumptions. However, I do believe that 'pretty much the only' positive uncertainty here - is the quarterly beat & its (temporary) effect on the pricing; which I did include in here.
